On March 19, 2003, while trying to determine the political future of his country, General Mohammed Al-Rawi (Yigal Naor) hides in Baghdad and meets with his aides discussing the invasion of Iraq. Al-Rawi suggests waiting for the Americans to arrive and have them perhaps make his army an offer to join their forces in forming a government coalition against foreign insurgents.
Four weeks later, U.S. Army Chief Warrant Officer Roy Miller (Matt Damon) and his squad investigate a warehouse, believed to be holding Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. To Miller's surprise, the warehouse is not secure, with looters making their way in and out as soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division sporadically fight the Iraqis. After a firefight, they find that the warehouse is empty, much to Miller's surprise. Checking over his report again, he exhaustedly states that this is the third consecutive false report he has been given. Later, at a debriefing, Miller brings up the point that the majority of the intel given to him is inaccurate and anonymous, stating that on his last three attempts to find WMDs, teams had taken casualties but come up with nothing. High-ranking officials quickly dismiss Miller's theory about the intelligence being false. After the debriefing, Miller is then stopped by Martin Brown (Brendan Gleeson), a CIA officer based in the Middle East, who tells Miller that the next place he is going to investigate for WMDs is also empty, as a UN team had already searched there two months ago.
Meanwhile, Pentagon official Clark Poundstone (Greg Kinnear) is welcoming an Iraqi politician named Ahmed Zubaidi (Raad Rawi) at the Baghdad International Airport, where he is questioned by a journalist named Lawrie Dayne (Amy Ryan). Because of global pressure about the WMD intel not materializing, she says she needs to speak directly to "Magellan," to which Poundstone brushes her off, claiming Magellan is "locked up tight" and that not even he could access him.
Meanwhile, while investigating another site, Miller is approached by an Iraqi who calls himself "Freddy" (Khalid Abdalla), who tells him that he saw some Ba'ath Party VIPs meeting in a nearby home. Miller and his men swiftly arrive and burst into the house. Al-Rawi narrowly escapes, but one of his henchmen is taken into custody. Before Miller can extract any more information, the man is grabbed by special operations personnel - however, Miller manages to maintain possession of the man's notebook. Dayne finds Poundstone again and complains, but he maintains his dismissive posture, justifying that the stakes are much larger than her role in selling newspapers.
Miller goes to Brown's hotel in the Green Zone where he tells him what happened and gives him the notebook. Brown arranges for Miller to visit the man removed from his custody by the special operations personnel. Before leaving, he is approached by Dayne, who questions him about the false reports of WMDs. Miller soon finds the Iraqi informant in prison. Near death after being tortured by the special forces personnel, the man informs Miller that they "did everything you asked us to in the meeting." When Miller asks for clarification about which meeting the captive is referring to, he responds with one word: "Jordan." Miller then goes to Dayne's hotel room to confront her about the bogus intel she published, but she refuses to disclose her source. He continues to press her about what she knows. After Miller connects the evidence and questions whether Magellan met with American officials in Jordan, Dayne reluctantly confirms his suspicions, disclosing that Al-Rawi met with Poundstone in February as Poundstone's informant.
Miller realizes that Poundstone's men are hunting Al-Rawi, and can think of only one reason they would do so: Al-Rawi never confirmed a WMD program in Iraq and is now a liability. Poundstone, realizing Miller is now looking for Al-Rawi as well, confiscates the notebook from Martin and discovers it contains the locations of Al-Rawi's known safehouses. Miller moves with his team to intercept Al-Rawi and capture him so he may testify, evading Poundstone's men in the process. During his search, he is taken prisoner by Al-Rawi's men following Poundstone's announcement of the decision to disband the entire Iraqi army - an announcement made to upset Al-Rawi's men and coax them into killing Miller. Al-Rawi tells a captive Miller that there had been no WMD program since the First Persian Gulf War and that he told Poundstone this at their initial meeting; Poundstone was being used as a tool by his superiors in Washington so that Iraq would be invaded, and reported that Al-Rawi had confirmed WMDs. After Miller's team calls in a report of his kidnapping, American forces commence an attack on Al-Rawi's positions and the general flees, ordering his men to kill Miller. Meanwhile, Miller kills his captor and races to capture Al-Rawi. When he finally manages to catch up with him, Freddy suddenly appears and kills Al-Rawi, stating that the fate of Iraq is "not his to decide." With his only witness against Poundstone's lies now dead, Miller reluctantly tells Freddy to escape before the area is secured by troops as many of the Iraqi insurgency desperately tries to hold off the American forces before being overwhelmed by their air support. Later, in his hotel suite, Miller writes a report of everything that happened.
Miller confronts Poundstone in a meeting and gives him the report. Poundstone tells Miller that WMDs do not matter, causing a physical confrontation where Miller states that "the reasons for war always matter." Poundstone then rejoins the Iraqi meeting, only to see the Iraqi factional leaders yelling at each other and leaving the meeting - a fate previously predicted by Martin Brown. Afterwards, Dayne receives an emailed copy of Miller's report. The recipient list includes reporters for over two-dozen news agencies around the world.
In the final scene, the camera pans out from Miller's convoy showing an oil facility to the right, suggesting the real reason of the war.
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